Meeting Martin
The post-hype 22 year old Venezuelan seems to have a
tenable rotation spot as the season nears its home stretch. The 6’ Lefty was the 15th ranked
prospect in 2010 according to Baseball Prospectus but the scouts slowly soured
on him as he ranked 33rd in 2011, 36th in 2012 and 59th
in 2013. He got six starts and six
relief appearances after being called up in 2012 posting a less than stellar
5.45 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP. His K% came
in at 14.1 with an 8.55% BB percentage.
His 2013 numbers have been better with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.39
matched with a K% of 15.1% and a BB% of 7.4.
However, his FIP has actually regressed in 2013 currently at 4.29 compared
to his 4.15 in 2012. Yet his xFIP is now
at 3.98 compared to his 2012 mark of 4.67.
But still… Yuck.
But, he’s playing
the Astros so it should be a no brainer to start him, right?
Well… the Astros aren’t the whipping boy one might expect
and are actually showing some signs of being a middle of the pack offense
against LHP. Their wOBA is 15th
at .304 and their wRC+ is 16th at 92. Should you start a less than average pitcher
against a middle of the pack offense? Tough
call. There is one juicy apple hanging
from the tree. The Astros lead the
league in K% against LHP at 27%. Yes,
over one in four batters heel turn and head back to the dugout.
Misc Nonsense
I guess it all comes down to how lucky you feel. He’s currently slated to throw opposite
Dallas Keuchel who was sent to the pen after giving up 6 runs over 7.1 innings
against the Blue Jays on 7/27. He didn’t
do very well in the pen either giving up five runs over his last 2.1. Keuchel will most likely get shelled. It’s also interesting to note that the Astros
have the 2nd highest BABIP against LHP @ .325 so there might be some
(four letter word omitted)… well, we won’t go that far but you have the number
so do with it what you will. I also heard
Ron Shandler say he was concerned with Perez’s K% so who knows if you’ll even
cash in on those K’s. (Note – Not even sure if that was Ron Shandler but I’m
fairly sure I heard that on one of the 900 podcasts I listen to)
Final Verdict
I think he gives up less than two runs (screw ER), K’s 5+
and gets the illusive W.
