Thursday, April 19, 2012

Two Ridiculous Rangers


Miggy Wants the Ball Back
Just because I thought it was hilarious, let’s start with Tuesday night when Miguel Cabrera broke a 0-22 streak by singling off of the Royals’ Bruce Chen.  After the hit, Miggy asked for the ball.  Guess he must have really been scuffling.   

Diamonds in the Rough
Ian Kinsler and Mike Napoli are ridiculous.  I was doing a little research last night to find some diamonds in the rough for the fantasy team and went to Fangraphs to use their amazing search tools to see who might be flying under the radar.  I’ll explain the process for those interested but if you don’t give a duce then skip the following paragraph.

As always, we like our fantasy players to play so I set the minimum plate appearances to 40 and then searched BABIP (batting average of balls in play) to sort as worst to first.  I was hoping to find some players who have been getting “unlucky” with hits but maintain production in hopes that said player would soon experience a jump in batting average.  I used wRC+ which basically takes a nerd version of OBP (wOBA) and factors in parks and what league one plays in to give you a number.  The league averge is 100 so anything over 100 is good and anything under 100 is bad.  I limited the count to anyone with a BABIP under .260 which gave us 59 players to look at.  I cut the wRC+ off at 110 as well.

There were a lot of interesting names on the list which seem like they are playing well even though they may have been unlucky over their first 40+ plate appearances.  This list includes:

                                         BABIP   wRC+
Miguel Cabrera                 .257        121
Dustin Pedroia                  .256        133
Brendan Ryan                   .250        117
Mike Napoli                   .250        171
Ian Kinsler                      .244        170
Alejandro De Aza             .242        139
Dexter Fowler                   .240        112
Jose Bautista                     .219        113
Aaron Hill                         .188        119

It is an interesting list but what really jumped out at me was the wRC+ of Kinsler and Napoli.  While maintaining a BABIP of below .250 they are both in the top 25 of wRC+ (min 40 plate appearances).   No other player has a BABIP below .290 in these top 25 players.  I’ll take a further look at both players.

Ian Kinsler
Kinsler’s career BABIP is .282 which would mean that one would expect to see more hits out of him in the future with his current BABIP being at .244.  However, in 2011 and 2009 he had BABIP’s of .243 and .241 respectively.  It seems like his increase in wRC+ is most due to an increase in power.  His ISO (a measure of power) is at an incredible .375 compared to his career .196.  His line drive percentage is at 36.4% compared to a career mark of 19.5 percent.  So it seemd like his BABIP should but won’t necessarily increase while his ability to continue crushing the ball will probably regress to the mean a bit.  Where I originally thought Kinsler was an example of a player ready for a breakout, it seems like he has been playing a bit over his skis.

Mike Napoli
Napoli’s career BABIP is .303 and the lowest marks of his career came in at .279 in 2010 and .276 in 2006 (99 games) when he was with the Angels (currently at .250).  Like Kinsler, his ISO is a superb .394 but just last year he had an ISO of .312.  His line drive percentage is at a sustainable 20.8% which is pretty close to his career mark of 18.4%.  He seems to be walking and striking out at similar rates to his career (K% - 25% to 24.5% & BB% 10% to 11.6%).  Going in I thought Kinsler would be the one who would prove to be the good buy but it looks like Napoli might be more likely to continue and possibly even improve on his torrid pace.  The one downside is that he seems to be hitting far more fly balls compared to ground balls so one would expect Napoli to hit more ground balls but with a depressed BABIP, could we conclude that he may see more of those ground balls sneak through for hits?  Probably not but the sustainability of the rest of his numbers makes Mike Napoli look like he might improve on last season’s career year.

Friday, April 13, 2012

A Breakdown of Justin Morneau


Is Justin Morneau Back?
Justin Morneau made headlines yesterday by clubbing a two run home run in the bottom of the eight to give the hometown Twins a lead over the Angels they would not relinquish (despite two runs given up by closer Matt Capps).  These were his first two RBIs on the season.  Hearing Morneau and home run in the same sentence again lead me to do the first Daily@Bats breakdown.

Taking a look at Morneau’s Fangraphs profile, he has a career K% of 15.1 and it currently sits at 20.8.  During his peak WAR years of 2008 (3.5 WAR), 2009 (3.6) and 2010 (5.1) he recorded  K% rates at 11.9, 14.6 and 17.8 respectively. Striking out a bit more than one would hope to see.

His career BB% is 9.8 and  currently sits at a measly 4.2.  He recorded a BB% of 12+ in both 2009 and 2010 so it will be interesting to see if he can still draw the same amount of walks as the season progresses.

Morneau’s career BABIP sits at .293 which is fairly close to his current .313 but one would assume there to be a bit of regression.

All of these beg someone to shout "small sample sizes" (especially the BB and K percentages) but it is interesting to notice that he is one two walks or a strikeout free game away from being similar to the 3+ WAR player we saw before he suffered his concussions. 

Who’d he Hit?
Now because we don’t have anything better to do, let’s take a look at who we got his hits off of this season.  We’ll go from most recent to his first.

Hit #6
Morneau homered off of Rich Thompson who most likely was one of the last players to make the Angels and may have made the team simply because he was out of minor league options (as mentioned in the second paragraph of this piece).  No offense to Mr. Thompson but this is probably a home run off a replacement level player but I suppose this is what you get paid to do when you are Justin Morneau.

Hit #5
Facing Jared Weaver, unquestionably a top of the rotation pitcher for most MLB teams, Morneau struck out in the bottom of the 2nd (looking) and in the bottom of the 4th (swinging) but in the bottom of the 6th he connected on a single to right center.   A hit off of Jared Weaver is a good sign for any player, especially one who is trying to establish oneself after an injury plagued season.

Hit #4
Facing the Oriels’ Jason Hammel, Morneau drew what is still his only walk in the top of the 5th.  He went on to double in the top of the 8th.  Hammel, a pitcher with 116 starts, has a career HR/9 of 1.05 and a K/9 of 6.24.  Hits are hits but Hammel is no stud.

Hit #3
Hit number three was a single against 26 year old relief pitcher Pedro Stropp who came into the season with 39.2 innings pitched over the last three years.  Another scrub hit but you take what you can get.

Hit #2
This hit came in the earlier innings of the Oriels game we saw hit #3.  After striking out in the first against former Rangers pitcher Tommy Hunter, Morneau doubled a ball off the warning track in the top of the 4th.  Hunter is a legitimate MLB starter so this was a quality hit.

Hit #1
Morneau got his first hit of the season off of Oriels’ starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (a single to left).  Arrieta only gave up two hits over seven innings so one would think that this was also a quality hit unless the Twins are truly terrible.  Morneau also struck out twice in this game, once to Arrieta and

But What Does it All Mean?
All in all it seems like it is too early to tell what to make of Justin Morneau.  He is striking out at a higher clip and walking at a lower clip but it is most likely too early to take anything from these numbers.  He has accumulated some hits against pitchers who are burred deep in bullpens but has also had some quality at bats against above average MLB pitching.  It will be interesting to see how he fairs in the next two series while facing the Rangers and Yankees, two squads with good starting pitching and bullpens.  

Thursday, April 12, 2012

A Lot of Chicago and a Little Miss America


Leadoff for the South Siders 
Chicago White Sox and leadoff hitter Alejandro De Aza had a home run included in his two hits, two runs and two RBIs on Wednesday in a day game against Cleveland.  He came into the season as a fantasy sleeper and it seems like he should continue batting leadoff with this type of production.  According to Fangraphs (image below), Bill James projected De Aza to have 32 stolen bases, 11 home runs and 87 runs.  James also predicts a triple slash line (Avg/OBP/SLG) of (291/352/441).  It looks like he is earning the at bats so he should be an easy add in almost all leagues (owned in just 44% of Yahoo leagues).

Picking up K’s with Cubs Hurlers
Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster went six scorelessinnings at home against the Brewers before giving up two in the top of the 7th (a HR to George Kottaras).  He held a Ryan Braun-less Brewers offense to two runs over 6.2 innings which is a decent showing against a decent offense.  He gave up five hits and three walks and struck out five but his next start is in Miami’s new ballpark which may be one of the most pitcher friendly in the MLB.  He’s a good add for those needing strikeouts.
Cubs relief pitcher came into the game in the 8th and struck out the side all coming on swinging strikes.  Wood is a valuable asset for anyone in leagues that counts holds or for those looking for extra strikeouts. 
And just because I can’t resist, Mat Gamel had another two hit day with a single and a double.

Ricky Romero is All That is Man
Daily@Bats’ man crush Ricky Romero went 8.1 giving up three hits, two walks and one earned run while striking out five against the struggling Red Sox.  His girlfriend Miss America approves this message.  Atta kid Rick.

Murphy’s Staying Hot
New York Mets' second baseman Daniel Murphy continues to wield the hot bat we saw last year.  He is currently hitting .320 keeping his OBP up over .360 which are the same numbers we saw from him last year.  In Yahoo leagues he is only showing 63% ownership with eligibility all over the infield (1B, 2B and 3B).  He’s not a sexy name so he might be a buy low option for those needing help in the infield.

Torii Might Have Some Value
Torii Hunter is off to a good start having multiple hit games in three of his first six games.  It would be nice to see him walk more (one on the season) but it seems like he may be taking to right field.  Hopefully last year’s poor performance is behind him.   Torii may be worth a pick-up if you are in need of a right fielder. 

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

More Strong Pitching Unless You're Brian Matusz


Brewers – 7, Cubs – 5
Darwin Barney hit his first home run of the season off Shaun Marcum in the bottom of the 1st which was also the teams first.  Are we witnessing the birth of Darwin’s power?  No, we are not but what fantasy owners may want to take notice of is the home run Bryan LaHair hit onto Sheffield Avenue in the bottom of the 2nd after working the count to full.  That was LaHair’s second dinger on the season and he accompanied it with a single in the 7th.
The Brewers saw their own fantasy sleeper Mat Gamel continue his hot start with an RBI triple in the 6th and a single to right in the 8th.  He scored on both occasions and even stole a base.  It was only his second stolen base in just over 180 at bats so we can’t be sure that there will be more to come but it looks like his bat might be for real.

Matusz Struggles at Home
Spring Darling Brian Matusz faced the Yankees on Monday night and got nicked up for four runs on six hits and four walks over four innings only striking out one.  It is probably too soon to say that he is going to lose his rotation spot but it is not going to get a lot easier with his next start projected to be in the high scoring Rogers Center in Toronto. 

Sale Has Strong Showing in First Start
White Sox converted reliever Chris Sale went 6.2 strong innings against a decent Cleveland offense allowing three hits, two walks and one run.  He struck out five and led the White Sox to the win.  Highlights here.

A Man Possessed
Barry Zito threw a complete game shutout against the Rockies in a day game at Coors Field.  It is really just too weird to put into words.  Buster Olney mentioned that Zito has made an adjustment with his hands so maybe Zito can start earning some of that contract.
 – Zito’s game

C.J. Wilson Picks on Terrible Twins
C.J. Wilson had a great day in his first start as an Angel but it is looking more and more likely that the Twins are atrocious.  He went seven innings giving up one hit, four walks and a run.  He struck out five, two of which came from Joe Mauer.

Monday, April 9, 2012

A Good Day for Pitchers


Niese K/9 is 7+
The Mets finished up a sweep of the Braves on Sunday.  The two staffs combined for 19 strikeouts on the day.  Mike Minor is known as a strikeout pitcher but I was surprised to find Jonathan Niese carries a career K/9 of over seven.  Niese had seven strikeouts in six innings but he was facing the Braves so we can understand why he got a head start on this years’ K/9.  Niese took a no hitter into the 7th, highlights here.

Nicasio Has Gem Roughed up by Bullpen
If Juan Nicasio throws seven innings of one run ball in the Astrodome, does anyone notice?  Nicasio of the Rockies shut down the AAA Astros striking out four and only walking one. Rex Brothers got the ball in the top of the 8th and retired the first two before giving up a few hits and watching third baseman Jordan Pacheco throw the ball around.  Here are highlights of Nicasio’s start.

Smardzija Doesn't Disappoint
The rumors of drastic improvement came to fruition for the Cubs’ Jeff Smardzija.  He got through eight and two thirds before the Nationals’ Ryan Zimmerman reached on a throwing error by Starlin Castro followed by a home run by Adam LaRoche.  You’d think Dusty Baker was back at the helm with Smardzija’s pitch count up at 110.  Before Zimmerman’s AB Smardzija line was as follows: 8 2/3 inning, 4H, 0BB, 1ER, 8K.

Dusty Baker Weasels Out of Trouble
Speaking of Dusty Baker, we’re about to do a little armchair managing.  The Reds took a 4-2 lead into the top of the 7th.  It was surprising to see that Baker was going to send Bronson Arroyo out for the 7th because he seemed to be hanging onto the lead by the skin of his teeth.  To no one’s surprise, Arroyo gave up the lead (hitting the first batter) before Logan Ondrusek was summoned from the bullpen come to put out the fire.  Dusty will sidestep any scrutiny because the Reds came back to win in the bottom of the 9th after Jay Bruce hit a home run (second on the day) to tie it and Scott Rolen drove inthe game winning run as a pinch hitter.  Things don’t get any easier for the Reds with Homer Bailey on the hill today.

Quick Hitters
Yet another pitcher note, former Lance Lynn threw 6.2solid innings with 8k’s for the Cardinals.
 
Carlos Santana clubbed two HR’s on Sunday.  Guess his knee is feeling better.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

It's ALIVE!!! (Or, Adam Dunn hits a HR)


Dunn Goes Upper Deck in Arlington
Everyone seemed to noticed but it is still fun to mention that Adam Dunn may have put last season’s disastrous effort behind him.  He came to bat in the top of the 6th and worked Colby Lewis to a full count.  And then this happened.  Patience and power, Dunny might be back.

According to Twitter's @sporer, Dunn tied Ken Griffy Jr. and Frank Robinson with his 8th opening day HR, an MLB record.  Looks like ESPN Stats and Research referenced this as well.  Credit where credit is due.

Baltimore – 4, Minnesota – 2
Baltimore opening day pitcher Jake Arrieta had a pretty solid day on the hill on Friday.  It is still too early to tell if he was actually good or if the Twins are simply terrible.  Time will tell but the past would seem to shine some light on Arrieta and lean more towards the Twins being terrible. 
Arrieta – 7IP, 4K, 0R, 2H, 2BB, 97p
Staying in Baltimore, it has to me mentioned that Nick Markakis had a monster game.  It must be noted that Markakis owns Twins pitcher Carl Pavano with an AVG/OBP/SLG triple slash of 381/458/667.  Now we must all kneel at the altar of sabermetrictis and Orwellianly say batter and pitcher matchups mean nothing.  In their favor, Markakis’ triple in the bottom of the 6th had more to do with the Ryan Doumit right field experience then stellar hitting. 

Noted
Carlos Beltre got the green light on a 3-0 count against Milwaukie’s Yovani Gallardo in the top of the 3rd and smacked a home.  This was followed by a Matt Holliday HR, a Lance Berkman walk and a David Freese home run.  All three can be seen here.  The Cardinals look like they are coping pretty well with the loss of King Albert.  Freese seems to have entered this season just as hot as he left the last.

Fantasy sleeper and Brewer first baseman Mat Gamel got two hits on Friday but it is interesting to note that he got both hits off left handed hitters (Jamie Garcia and J.C. Romero).  However, he had an ugly strikeout against righty Kyle McClellan.  So who knows…

Friday, April 6, 2012

From Omar Vizquel to Greg Williams


Couple of glitches on the links but come on!  I've only been doing this for three days.


Toronto – 7, Cleveland – 4
Want to start this out right by giving a shout out to the timeless wonder Omar Vizquel.  After coming in as a fifth infielder in the bottom of the 12th inning, he was able to get his 11,851st plate appearance in the following half inning.  On his way out of the dugout you could distinctly see manager John Farrell asking Mr. Vizquel to buy him beer.  April 24th will mark Omar’s 45th birthday.  Impressive indeed. 

Nice Piece of Hittin’ Kid
Since standing ovations are rarely overrated, let’s take a look at Prince Fielder’s first at bat as a Tiger.  He led off the bottom of the 2nd facing John Lester.
·         Fielder takes an outside fastball for ball one.  (Pitch FX of pitch locations here)
·         Fielder takes a fastball up and in for ball two.
·         Prince takes a questionable strike low and away for strike one.  2-1
·         Fielder cannot hold up on a breaking ball low and away.  2-2
·         Prince takes a breaking ball low and away.  3-2
·         Fielder connects on an up and in fastball for a single.  
Complete Pitch FX of the AB here.

Nice Piece of Hittin’ Kid 2
Starlin Castro got a “hit” which consisted of a pop fly to Steven Strasburg that he apparently could not see in the sun because he ran out of the vicinity, leaving it for Adam LaRoche and or Ryan Zimmerman but neither corner infielder could make the play.  A pop fly to the mound, misplayed by at least one but possibly up to three defensive players is recorded as a hit.  … it’s good to play at home.  Was unable to find the clip so in its place included a clip of a foul ball destroying someone’s beer.  Nice catch buddy.

Don’t Let ‘um Get Away From Ya Kid
Back to Chicago.  Kerry Wood faced Jayson Werth with the bases loaded in the top of the 8th trying to hold on to a one run lead.  Wood, having walked Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman in the previous two at bats just needed to get one of last year’s most disappointing players to make an out.  Jayson Werth did all he could.
·         Wood starts by pumping a fastball past Werth right down the middle of the plate.
·         On the next pitch Werth hits a lofty fly ball to right field which would certainly have ended the inning if the Windy City wind did not take it foul.
·         Werth watch a pitch that the crowd certainly thought was strike three but is called ball one.  Xfinity Pitch Track in Chicago agrees so how can we argue.
·         Wood burns a fastball high and in and Werth holds up.  The check down to first confirms.  2-2
·         Wood sails one even higher than the last.  3-2
·         Ball four low.  Tie game.  That was Wood’s third and last walk in 0.1 innings.  Video  

Don’t Let ‘um Get Away From Ya Kid 2
Fantasy Sleeper Edinson Volquez walked in the first Dodger run last night in the top of the 4th.  James Loney drew the walk which pushed Matt Kemp across the plate.  In the next at bat Volquez forced a “runners fielders choice” which looked more like a “past ball/wild pitch” which catcher Nick Hundley retrieved, fired back to Volquesz who applied the tag on Andre Ethier.  I will not mention that it was a terrible call because Edinson is a class act and went on to walk the next two batters to bring in that lost run for the Dodgers.  Edinson Volquez is gunna Edison Volquez.

Oh, and apparently Clayton Kershaw can only shut down the Padres for three innings with flu like symptoms.  Michael Jordan and his 38 points in 44minutes says Clayton needs to step up his flu game.

The Greg William award goes to:
Great American Ballpark’s outfield fence support.  Chris Heisey, who has been buried yet again on Dusty Baker’s bench, drilled a shot in a pinch hit at bat in the bottom of the 8th to deep center field.  Emilio Bonifacio gave chase but ran out of room colliding with a padded fence support.  Bonifacio walked it off like a man but it is surprising to find out he was not concussed.  For what it’s worth, the Reds TV Broadcaster claimed Heisey will split most of his platoon facing hard throwers and pitchers who work up in the zone.  Apparently he is a good high ball hitter but with only 481 MLB at bats, it is a wonder they can make that type of declaration.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

First win for Mike Matheny

Since MLB.tv would not let me watch the game last night, I'm not going to do the Daily@Bats sections but will instead look at the last four Cardinals managers to get their first win.  I was going to do all of them but it turns out this is a lot of work and the games for today are about to start. 


  • 4/1/1996 – Tony LaRussa loses to Dallas Green of the Mets at Shea Stadium in his first game as manager of the Cardinals.  Tony Fossas blows a save on a (3-0) single by B. Gilkey.  This was followed by what I can only assume was an insane play (RF-1B-SS-1B-SS).  Sacrifice fly which turned into a double play.  L (0-1) 
  • 6/16/1995 – Interim manager Mike Jorgensen bested Dusty Baker’s Giants at Bush Busch Stadium II.  And to prove we are not picking on Tony Fossas, he came got a hold and ended a Giants rally by getting a backwards K on a little known hitter named Barry Bonds.  W (6-5)
  •  8/2/1990 – Joe Torrie gets a win against Nick Leyva of the Phillies.  We can also call this the game whch lead me to further search and wonder what the 11 games looked like where John Kruk played center field during the 1991 season.   W (4-3)
  •  6/9/1980 – Whitey Herzog gets his first Cardinal win over Bobby Cox’s Atlanta Braves at Atlanta Fulton County Stadium.  Looks like it was a pretty good game decided in the top of the 10th on a George Hendrick three run home run off of Gene Garber. W (8-5)
Ozzie Guillen lost his first game as manager of the Miami Marlins and I may take a look at the history of Managers records in franchises first games.  Which, obviously, is just useless information but it's hard to break out of the off-season funk. 


Speaking of useless, media tried to make a big deal over the "botched" groundball/slap bunt that got through the left side of the infield.  Obviously Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez are the worst infield ever and will most certainly die of embarrassment.  My question: If Hanley would have made a diving play on that ball on with Furcal rounding 2nd, would Furcal been able to make 3rd (which he did anyway).  No win situation for Hanley.


Josh Johnson's fantasy owners may be disappointed in the loss and WHIP but it has to be a sight for sore eyes to see him on the hill and exit a game pain free.  6IP, 4K, 3R, 10H, 2BB


God is good.  Baseball is back.