A Breakdown of Justin Morneau

Is Justin Morneau Back?

Justin Morneau made headlines yesterday by clubbing a two run home run in the bottom of the eight to give the hometown Twins a lead over the Angels they would not relinquish (despite two runs given up by closer Matt Capps).  These were his first two RBIs on the season.  Hearing Morneau and home run in the same sentence again lead me to do the first Daily@Bats breakdown.

Taking a look at Morneau’s Fangraphs profile, he has a career K% of 15.1 and it currently sits at 20.8.  During his peak WAR years of 2008 (3.5 WAR), 2009 (3.6) and 2010 (5.1) he recorded  K% rates at 11.9, 14.6 and 17.8 respectively. Striking out a bit more than one would hope to see.

His career BB% is 9.8 and  currently sits at a measly 4.2.  He recorded a BB% of 12+ in both 2009 and 2010 so it will be interesting to see if he can still draw the same amount of walks as the season progresses.

Morneau’s career BABIP sits at .293 which is fairly close to his current .313 but one would assume there to be a bit of regression.

All of these beg someone to shout "small sample sizes" (especially the BB and K percentages) but it is interesting to notice that he is one two walks or a strikeout free game away from being similar to the 3+ WAR player we saw before he suffered his concussions. 

Who’d he Hit?

Now because we don’t have anything better to do, let’s take a look at who we got his hits off of this season.  We’ll go from most recent to his first.

Hit #6

Morneau homered off of Rich Thompson who most likely was one of the last players to make the Angels and may have made the team simply because he was out of minor league options (as mentioned in the second paragraph of this piece).  No offense to Mr. Thompson but this is probably a home run off a replacement level player but I suppose this is what you get paid to do when you are Justin Morneau.

Hit #5

Facing Jared Weaver, unquestionably a top of the rotation pitcher for most MLB teams, Morneau struck out in the bottom of the 2^nd (looking) and in the bottom of the 4^th (swinging) but in the bottom of the 6^th he connected on a single to right center.   A hit off of Jared Weaver is a good sign for any player, especially one who is trying to establish oneself after an injury plagued season.

Hit #4

Facing the Oriels’ Jason Hammel, Morneau drew what is still his only walk in the top of the 5^th.  He went on to double in the top of the 8^th.  Hammel, a pitcher with 116 starts, has a career HR/9 of 1.05 and a K/9 of 6.24.  Hits are hits but Hammel is no stud.

Hit #3

Hit number three was a single against 26 year old relief pitcher Pedro Stropp who came into the season with 39.2 innings pitched over the last three years.  Another scrub hit but you take what you can get.

Hit #2

This hit came in the earlier innings of the Oriels game we saw hit #3.  After striking out in the first against former Rangers pitcher Tommy Hunter, Morneau doubled a ball off the warning track in the top of the 4^th.  Hunter is a legitimate MLB starter so this was a quality hit.

Hit #1

Morneau got his first hit of the season off of Oriels’ starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (a single to left).  Arrieta only gave up two hits over seven innings so one would think that this was also a quality hit unless the Twins are truly terrible.  Morneau also struck out twice in this game, once to Arrieta and

But What Does it All Mean?

All in all it seems like it is too early to tell what to make of Justin Morneau.  He is striking out at a higher clip and walking at a lower clip but it is most likely too early to take anything from these numbers.  He has accumulated some hits against pitchers who are burred deep in bullpens but has also had some quality at bats against above average MLB pitching.  It will be interesting to see how he fairs in the next two series while facing the Rangers and Yankees, two squads with good starting pitching and bullpens.