I've been making some wagers in an offshore account and have had some fairly good success this season. It seemed apt to post those best here mostly because it's been interesting to me (winning helps). Personally, I think that over-thinking a bet is a bad so I made the choices first and then looked into why these were good or in most cases poor bets. I have two rules that I generally stick to when betting on baseball, don't go below (-110) on the money line and never bet on or against a knuckleballer. I've included brief incite into what I thought while making the bet in the "first take" at the end of each match-up. Today picks go as follows in the order of most confident to least confident as the bets were made:
New York Mets (Even) v Arizona Diamondbacks
Why would you go against a pitcher who has allowed three
hits, three walks and 13 strikeouts over his last 12.1 innings? Geez… now that you put it like that, I don’t
know. Here’s hoping that Diamondbacks
LHP Wade Miley was just lucky with drawing the Phillies and Marlins in his
previous (and only) two starts this season since they are both pretty
terrible against LHP. Now, the Mets are
not a ton better but it will be interesting to see if they have started to work
up a “book” on Miley. Dillon Gee has not
been superb at home, giving up 20 hits over 12 innings. Okay… that didn't make me feel too awesome either. Basically, Gee is pitching at a fairly high
level with a FIP of 3.39 and a xFIP of 2.99 and it seems like the game should
match up to be a pretty close affair.
First take: Dillon Gee seem to be pitching pretty well and Wade Miley is a rookie and David Wright crushes LHP.
Toronto Blue Jays (+112) @ Anaheim Angels
Why would you take a pitcher who is touting a 2.51
strikeouts per nine innings and 2.51 walks per nine innings? Because he is facing Ervin Santana and a
struggling Angels offense. Henderson Alvarez
seems like he might be holding on for dear life with a a FIP of
5.93 and an xFIP of 4.91 but Santana is coming in with an ERA of 5.58, a FIP of
7.04 and an xFIP of 4.62. In Alvarez's short season, it seems he can hold his own against the lesser offenses. He beat Baltimore twice, improving in his
second start and he held the Mariners to one earned run over six innings. I’d put the Angels closer to the Orioles but
wOBA and wRC+ say otherwise (they actually would put the M’s in the lead
against RHP). I’m assuming we can chalk
up the struggling stars Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista to a draw, the two
pitchers to a draw and what is left is a marginally better Blue Jays
offense. Since they are getting the
points, they seem like a strong bet. Don’t think I’m not worried this will be the game Pujols blows up. Or that I'll feel confident if Coco Cordero comes out to close the game. Let’s just move on.
First take: Ervin Santana has been all over the place and Henderson Alvarez has been consistent. The Jays have a pretty good offense where as the Angels have been struggling.
Milwaukie Brewers (+101) @ San Francisco Giants
Let’s hope Brandon Belt doesn’t play again. Wouldn’t that be fun! All kidding aside, this should be a pretty
good game. The anemic Giants’ offense
will be without Pablo Sandoval and rumor has it that the Brewers will most
likely be without Ryan Braun and the underrated Mat Gammel. The Giants will be trotting out Tim Lincecum
and his 1.58 WHIP. For what it’s worth
Lincecum had his best start in his last appearance going eight innings and
allowing three hits and one unearned run.
However, this tends to happen when you face the Padres and four walks are
not exactly ideal. He will be facing Zack
Greinke who has played well but also has a couple games that one might consider
concerning. He gave up eight earned runs
to the Cubs on 4/12 and on 4/23 he allowed eight hits and waked two over six
innings against the Astros. It seems
like a low scoring toss up and when in doubt, take the points (all .001 of 'em...).
First take: Not going to lie, I didn't know Braun would be out. But it's saying something that I still felt comfortable taking the Brewers even after the book adjusted their line. ... doesn't it???
Chicago White Sox (-102) @ Detroit Tigers
I got burned the last time I bet against the Tigers (it
was on accident and yet another time when a line from John Wooden seemed apt, “Be
quick, but don’t hurry”). It seems like White
Sox’s starting pitcher Jake Peavy is locked in this year and one would hope to
ride the wave. His nerd stats are way
down right now. He’s walking fewer
batters per nine innings, he’s giving up less home runs per nine and he’s carrying
an unsustainable .206 batting average for balls in play. He is doing all of this while inducing ground
balls at an all-time low 24.5% compared to his career 41.1% which seems counter
intuitive. It seems like these should
all kind of even out to make Peavy’s results fairly consistent with what he has
produced. But I’m no scientist.
Mostly, I would recommend taking the White Sox because
the Tigers are trotting out Drew Smyly.
Smyly seems like he has been a pretty consistent strikeout pitcher in
his brief career in the Tigers system (27 games including minor leagues). However, of those runners who have reached
base on Smyly, he has stranded 100% of them.
That should probably come down a bit.
His current ERA is 1.23 with a FIP of 3.96 and an xFIP of 3.62. In the 14 games Smyly played in high A ball
his ERA was 2.58 and in AA it was 1.18 over eight games. So his numbers look legit, he has a better
offense, he’s playing at home and I’m taking the other guy… It’s not called
gambling for nothin’.
First take: Peavy is hot and Smily is young.
Thanks for taking a look. If it happens that I lose all of these you can bet that you'll never see me delve this deep into my bets again!
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