2016 Watchlist
Saturday, March 5, 2016
3B Research
Danny Valencia -
Profile: He's no doubt a journeyman, but Valencia has hung around despite some character questions because he has one very definite skill; he absolutely mashes lefties. Valencia is no great shakes at third base defensively, but has diversified his portfolio in recent years which has seen him play as many as five defensive positions last year -- not including also designated hitter -- as he had a bit of a resurgence with the Blue Jays and A's last year. Valencia hit .290/.345/.519 overall, though surprisingly he was better against righties (.881 OPS) than lefties (.834). That doesn't ring true for his career (.664/.862), but a late-career resurgence isn't out of the question. Going on 32, he's starting to get to the point of his career where he's getting a bit expensive as he gets close to free agency. If he can keep hitting righties, teams won't mind. (Brandon Warne)
The Quick Opinion: Third base depth is always in question, and Valencia was darn good in 105 games last year across the board. His versatility helps, but he'll need to keep mashing righties to have mixed league relevance moving forward.
Evan Longoria -
Profile: Longoria, once reliable for excellent seasons with both the bat and the glove, has now posted two seasons well beneath that level in both facets of the game. Trading a seven win Longo for a four win Longo is a tough exchange, but now -- entering his age-30 season -- could very well be the harbinger of his steady decline in the years to come. His isolated slugging percentage and (likely as a result) his walk rate have been creeping downward since their peaks in 2011. And until his can hit the ball with authority again, pitchers will not be giving him as many walks. That being said, a four-win Longo is still the envy of a many a team. His contract won't hit $15 million until 2020, and his two-year lull in offense may be attributable to lingering injury issues. And while the metrics may not have glistened for Longo, results from Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report (67 overall rating) suggest Longoria is still one of the best defenders at his position. Is he a first or second round fantasy pick? No. But he could be a prudent bet at a position that hit that basically put up league average offense as a group in 2015.
The Quick Opinion: Longoria's best days may be behind him at this point. And while his defense is still solid enough to keep him at third base, it is appearing more likely than ever that his offensive numbers have lowered to a new normal. If his power comes back, which is unlikely, he could have a decent resurgence, but it's hard to bet on a 30-year-old veteran suddenly recovering his 25-year-old swing.
Justin Turner -
Profile: Justin Turner’s hulk-like transformation from utility infielder into one of the top-hitting National League third basemen was one of the better stories of 2015, even if many owners will come to draft day unconvinced that the 31-year-old can replicate the production. To review, his 16 homers more than doubled his career total, his 141 weighted runs created-plus was tops among all NL third basemen with at least 400 plate appearances, and he clearly loves being a Dodger, as he’s now slashed .314/.384/.492 over two seasons (761 plate appearances). How did he do it? Strike zone recognition is a big reason: his share of 2-0 counts soared, he attacked pitches in the zone more frequently, and yet he didn’t sacrifice his walk rate, which stayed above the 8% mark for the second straight year. Meanwhile, his batted ball profile completely changed last year, with ground balls replaced by line drives at an eye-popping 27.7% clip. The production waned a bit in the second half, when Turner missed time for a skin infection and a left knee injury that would eventually require offseason surgery. He’s no lock to exceed 15 home runs after posting a career-best home run rate on fly balls despite miniscule improvement in his average batted ball distance, but the circumstances that paved the way for his breakout — sharing the middle of the order with Adrian Gonzalez and a career .880 on-base plus slugging percentage at Dodger Stadium — will remain the same for 2016. At his age, Turner is probably not going to improve, but even if his productivity trails off a bit in 2016, he’ll still provide enough value to make him a sneaky mid-round pick after the top third basemen are off the board.
The Quick Opinion: More than a few owners will be skeptical that Justin Turner can replicate the near-all-star form that marked his breakout season last year, but he is clearly evolving at the plate and figures to be a key part of a padded Dodgers lineup in 2016. Draft him as a mid-level third baseman after the top hot-cornermen are off the board.
2016 Projections
Profile: He's no doubt a journeyman, but Valencia has hung around despite some character questions because he has one very definite skill; he absolutely mashes lefties. Valencia is no great shakes at third base defensively, but has diversified his portfolio in recent years which has seen him play as many as five defensive positions last year -- not including also designated hitter -- as he had a bit of a resurgence with the Blue Jays and A's last year. Valencia hit .290/.345/.519 overall, though surprisingly he was better against righties (.881 OPS) than lefties (.834). That doesn't ring true for his career (.664/.862), but a late-career resurgence isn't out of the question. Going on 32, he's starting to get to the point of his career where he's getting a bit expensive as he gets close to free agency. If he can keep hitting righties, teams won't mind. (Brandon Warne)
The Quick Opinion: Third base depth is always in question, and Valencia was darn good in 105 games last year across the board. His versatility helps, but he'll need to keep mashing righties to have mixed league relevance moving forward.
Evan Longoria -
Profile: Longoria, once reliable for excellent seasons with both the bat and the glove, has now posted two seasons well beneath that level in both facets of the game. Trading a seven win Longo for a four win Longo is a tough exchange, but now -- entering his age-30 season -- could very well be the harbinger of his steady decline in the years to come. His isolated slugging percentage and (likely as a result) his walk rate have been creeping downward since their peaks in 2011. And until his can hit the ball with authority again, pitchers will not be giving him as many walks. That being said, a four-win Longo is still the envy of a many a team. His contract won't hit $15 million until 2020, and his two-year lull in offense may be attributable to lingering injury issues. And while the metrics may not have glistened for Longo, results from Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report (67 overall rating) suggest Longoria is still one of the best defenders at his position. Is he a first or second round fantasy pick? No. But he could be a prudent bet at a position that hit that basically put up league average offense as a group in 2015.
The Quick Opinion: Longoria's best days may be behind him at this point. And while his defense is still solid enough to keep him at third base, it is appearing more likely than ever that his offensive numbers have lowered to a new normal. If his power comes back, which is unlikely, he could have a decent resurgence, but it's hard to bet on a 30-year-old veteran suddenly recovering his 25-year-old swing.
Justin Turner -
Profile: Justin Turner’s hulk-like transformation from utility infielder into one of the top-hitting National League third basemen was one of the better stories of 2015, even if many owners will come to draft day unconvinced that the 31-year-old can replicate the production. To review, his 16 homers more than doubled his career total, his 141 weighted runs created-plus was tops among all NL third basemen with at least 400 plate appearances, and he clearly loves being a Dodger, as he’s now slashed .314/.384/.492 over two seasons (761 plate appearances). How did he do it? Strike zone recognition is a big reason: his share of 2-0 counts soared, he attacked pitches in the zone more frequently, and yet he didn’t sacrifice his walk rate, which stayed above the 8% mark for the second straight year. Meanwhile, his batted ball profile completely changed last year, with ground balls replaced by line drives at an eye-popping 27.7% clip. The production waned a bit in the second half, when Turner missed time for a skin infection and a left knee injury that would eventually require offseason surgery. He’s no lock to exceed 15 home runs after posting a career-best home run rate on fly balls despite miniscule improvement in his average batted ball distance, but the circumstances that paved the way for his breakout — sharing the middle of the order with Adrian Gonzalez and a career .880 on-base plus slugging percentage at Dodger Stadium — will remain the same for 2016. At his age, Turner is probably not going to improve, but even if his productivity trails off a bit in 2016, he’ll still provide enough value to make him a sneaky mid-round pick after the top third basemen are off the board.
The Quick Opinion: More than a few owners will be skeptical that Justin Turner can replicate the near-all-star form that marked his breakout season last year, but he is clearly evolving at the plate and figures to be a key part of a padded Dodgers lineup in 2016. Draft him as a mid-level third baseman after the top hot-cornermen are off the board.
2016 Projections
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Andrew Benintendi
DOB: 07/06/1994
Height/Weight: 5’10” 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Future Tools: 55 speed, 55 hit, 55 glove, 50+ power Role: 55—above-average regular in center field
Lewis Brinson
DOB: 05/08/1994
Height/Weight: 6’3” 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Future Tools: 70 glove, 60 speed, 60 arm, 55 power Role: 60—First-division center fielder
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