2016 Watchlist Under 25 v RHP
Brett Lawrie
Profile: Lawrie received a steady diet of offspeed pitches throughout the course of the season. In fact, of 141 qualified hitters, Lawrie saw a fastball at the fourth lowest frequency at 50.4%. To say he struggled to adjust would be accurate, as 2015 saw Lawrie finish with his lowest contact rate and walk rate of any of his qualified seasons. Factor in his ballooning strikeout rate while being fed so many breaking balls and changeups and you end with last season's brutal totals of 28 walks against 144 strikeouts. Moving to the White Sox immediately improves his home park and will help highlight arguably his best offensive trait (his power), however Lawrie is still a fringey guy in standard mixed leagues. His flexibility at third or second base helps, especially if used as a middle infielder, but his game is held down by his strikeout rate and he doesn't have enough power to make the trade worth it. Avoid him in on-base percentage leagues due to his poor contact and walk rates, however as a late round MI filler type, Lawrie does have a bit of value in deeper formats. (David Wiers)
The Quick Opinion: Pitchers fought the Lawrie, and well, pitchers won. To be fair, Lawrie did crack 16 home runs and rack up 60 RBIs with 64 runs scored, but he rated below average overall in 602 plate appearances.
Eugenio Suarez
Profile: Acquired by the Reds over the 2014 offseason, Suarez took over the starting shortstop job after Cozart was knocked out for the season. The power that he showed during his 2014 stay in the minors returned, as his isolated power nearly doubled and home run to fly ball rate more than doubled from his time with the Tigers. Unfortunately, his plate discipline has yet to translate, as his walk rate tumbled and strikeout rate sits higher than it ever had in the minors. The good news is that he swung at fewer pitches outside the zone than the league average, which provides optimism about his ability to get on base more, thereby increasing his opportunities to score runs. He'll need a walk rate spike to offset the risk of a batting average on balls in play decline, as his batted ball profile does not support a mark anywhere near the .341 he posted in 2015. That said, if he finds himself with a starting job (and it looks good going into spring), he should be a bottom tier middle infield option. (Mike Podhorzer)
The Quick Opinion: With Zack Cozart returning to man shortstop, Suarez figures to move over to third base, where he has only appeared 51 times during his professional career, the majority of those games coming all the way back in 2009. If he could cut it there, he should provide above average power and a touch of speed, while still qualifying at shortstop.
Brad Miller
Profile: Brad Miller, he of the crazy legs, will now both torment and tantalize the fans of the Tampa Bay Rays after an offseason trade. After a good rookie campaign and a lackluster sophomore followup, Miller fell near the middle of the spectrum in (staying with the theme) what would be his junior season. Miller raised his average back near .260 and hit double digits in both homers and steals, but his contact rate dropped for the third straight year. Miller also finally struggled enough to be a consistent defensive shortstop that the Mariners moved him to the outfield at the end of the season. While inconsistent, defensive metrics still believe Miller is about an average defender, and the Rays appear willing to put that to the test this year, at least against righties. In Yahoo leagues, Miller is already eligible at second, short, and outfield, and it would be great if he could hold onto those positions going forward. If any team is willing to use someone in a utility role, it’s the Rays. Miller will likely get first dibs on the Rays’ shortstop job, but if he fails defensively, could move to second base or the outfield. If he were only eligible at short, Miller would be nothing more than a flier late in drafts; but with multi-position eligibility, Miller becomes a dollar or two more valuable. (Zach Sanders)
The Quick Opinion: Brad Miller will deal with a change of scenery this year, but he’ll get another chance to play shortstop, this time in Tampa Bay. Miller’s worthy of a pick in all formats, especially those who give him eligibility at both second base and in the outfield.
Eduardo Escobar
Profile: Escobar surprised for the second season in a row for the Twins, doing so for a different reason this time around. In 2014, Escobar hit .275 with 35 doubles, surprising some with that pop from the middle infield. In 2015, his batting average on balls in play declined from .336 to .301, but he made up for it by showing even more pop, stroking 12 home runs with 31 doubles. For a 27-year-old who didn't display much power at any level of the minors, that's a positive development, and he got even hotter late in the year when handed the starting reigns at short full time. Prior to that point, he managed to get in five or more games at four positions and 10 or more at three, so he'll be a flexible multi-position option in 2016, depending on your league's minimums. Is the power surge sustainable? Well, the switch hitter finally managed to hit righties regularly, improving his plate coverage from the left side, and he hits the ball close to league average hardness despite a smaller stature, pointing to a slow, multi-year power development. The Twins will probably give Danny Santana another shot to win the job in spring training, but if Escobar can lock it down, he could be a cheap source of 10-plus home runs without killing your batting average. (Blake Murphy)
The Quick Opinion: Escobar continued a quiet power development by unexpectedly smacking 12 home runs in 2015, eight of them in the season's final two months. That's beyond what can be expected in 2016, but if he wins the starting shortstop gig again, his low-double-digits power and positional flexibility could make him a cheap flier in deeper formats.
Marcus Semien
Profile: There's a mantra among talent evaluators to the effect that it's bad form to go around "scouting the stat line." If one understands certain basic concepts, however -- that age relative to level is important, for example, and that some metrics become reliable in much smaller samples (and are more predictive of future success) than others -- then forming certain tentative ideas about a player on the basis of his stats is a perfectly reasonable endeavor. This is, of course, the principle on which good projections systems are built. And this point is relevant to Semien because, before he became Oakland's starting shortstop and before he became the sort of player for whom a team would trade away Jeff Samardzija, he was a middle infielder producing excellent offensive indicators as just a 22-year-old at Double- and Triple-A. And a couple years before that, he was only a sixth-round pick out of California-Berkeley. Sixth-rounders tend not to graduate to the majors, let alone record roughly league-average seasons as 24-year-olds. Semien is a different player than the one who lasted till the 201st overall pick and a better one than his prospect rankings suggested. (Carson Cistulli)
The Quick Opinion: Sixth-round picks tend not to graduate to the majors, let alone succeed there. Semien's combination of offensive and defensive skills, however, eclipse whatever shortcomings he exhibited as an amateur.
Matt Adams
Profile: In Matt Adams' first real shot at playing time back in 2013, he hit 17 home runs in just 319 plate appearances. More of the same was expected in 2014, but he took a slight step back, hitting for a solid batting average but just 15 homers in 563 plate appearances. Roughly average production for a first baseman is nothing to discard, and after he hit three homers in the playoffs, including a big one off Clayton Kershaw to win the Divisional Series, expectations were ratcheted back up for 2015. Adams lost most of last season to a hamstring tear, recovering enough to get back in the lineup in September, but not enough to get on the postseason roster. It would be easy to dismiss Adams' season as just lost to injury, but he was not hitting before he got hurt. While it was only 153 plate appearances, Adams' line was .243/.281/.375 at the end of May with just four home runs. Adams is a free-swinger who does not draw many walks, so to be of value at first base, Adams has to hit for power, something he has not excelled at since his first real taste of the big leagues in 2013. Adams could still tap into that power, but if he does not do it quickly, the Cardinals expect Brandon Moss to play much better than he showed in 2015, and Stephen Piscotty could also see time at first base. Matt Adams is not likely to be an everyday player this season unless he hits considerably better than he has over the last two years. (Craig Edwards)
The Quick Opinion: There is still some pop in Matt Adams' bat, but if he does not find it quickly this spring, he could find himself in an upward battle for playing time.
Scooter Gennett
Profile: When a diminutive middle infielder nicknamed after a child's plaything comes to the major leagues and shows more than league average power, it's tempting to get excited about it. But Gennett's isolated power was better than any number he'd put up since rookie ball, and last year seemed to show that it wasn't going to happen for him in the major leagues again. Without that power, though, we're left with a little dude with no patience, little power, no speed, and too many strikeouts for that sort of package. He also can't hit lefties -- he's been a whopping 129% worse than league average with the stick against lefties when left in there. Now he may not even have a good glove to keep him in the role. The best / only thing he has going for him is lack of another option, but if Jonathan Villar does anything, he might actually take the job from Gennett. Should you need to get to school without getting sweaty, then by all means grab a scooter. Should you need batting average, steals, power, or even just plate appearances, it's best to leave this scooter on the shelf. (David Temple)
The Quick Opinion: Scooter Gennett is the type of infielder you pick up as an injury replacement in hopes that he doesn't kill your totals for those two weeks or so. He probably won't, but that will not make you feel any better about adding him to your team.
Odubel Herrera
Profile: Herrera is already one of the most successful Rule 5 picks in recent memory. Making the jump from Double-A to the majors for the hapless Phillies, Herrera posted an offensive line that was 10% better than league average, positive baserunning, and even added defensive value -- mostly as an everyday center fielder. It may be facile to point to a .387 batting average on balls in play and cry regression, but it's a real concern for him offensively. Luckily, there's room for improvement in other areas. His 24% strikeout rate is six percentage points higher than his worst such rate from the minors (18% K% at High-A in 2012). He's not expected to become a power hitter, but he could pop 10 to 15 home runs annually. Despite favorable defensive readings, he didn't always take the sharpest routes. It was his first full season as an outfielder, so we can expect his route running to tighten up. Overall, the Phillies appear to have found an easily above average center fielder for $50,000. Kudos. (Brad Johnson)
The Quick Opinion: Herrera cost the Phillies just $50,000 to acquire, and he's already made good on the meager investment. In a normal season, he could have contended for Rookie of the Year. Alas, it was not a normal season.
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