Mickey Moniak

BP - 56

The Good: Moniak might not have been the consensus best talent in the draft, but the Phillies got a relatively safe high school bat at 1-1. Moniak’s hit tool was among the best in the draft, featuring a line-drive swing with good barrel control. He is a plus runner with a good shot to stick in center field.



The Bad: He’s not a lock to stick in center and doesn’t project as a plus defender there. He may not have the arm for right field or the power to be an impact bat in left.

The Irrelevant: Mickey is not short for “Michael,” rather “McKenzie,” which makes more sense if you actually think about it.

The Role: OFP 60 — Above-average center fielder Likely 50 — Average outfielder

The Risks: Moniak is a prep pick with no professional track record outside of the complex. Hit-tool guys aren’t seen as traditionally “risky” profiles, but Moniak doesn’t have much to fall back on if he is “only” an average hitter in the end.

Major league ETA: 2020

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Safe doesn’t always mean boring! Moniak has the tools to hit .300-plus with 20-plus steals and enough homers to matter in a few years, sort of like Adam Eaton ratched up 10-20 percent. The long lead time and relatively modest upside make him a non-elite fantasy prospect, but still one you should be perfectly content drafting or bidding on as 2016 draftees become eligible in your dynasty league (if they haven’t already).

Fangraphs - 22

Hit-30/70 Raw Power-40/50 Game Power-20/40 Run-60/55 Fielding-40/55 Throw-50/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics None.

Scouting Report The Phillies held the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft and were faced with two situational dilemmas. First, there wasn’t a clear transcendent superstar available atop the draft. Second, in situations without an obvious 1-1 candidate, teams like to find ways to reallocate the signing bonus associated with that first pick to latter picks in order to make the most out of their entire class. But teams like Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, who all had multiple picks between the Phillies’ first and second selections, made Philly’s pursuit of this strategy difficult. Moniak signed for $6 million, which is $3 million under slot, and allowed the Phillies to pursue expensive, falling, prep talent like Blake Rutherford, Joey Wentz or Kevin Gowdy with their next pick.

That’s not to say Moniak isn’t a great prospect. I saw him six times in high school and the consistency with which he hit was incredible. I have as aggressive a grade on his bat as I’ve ever had for a high-school prospect. His swing, graceful and comfortable and simple yet still impactful, is geared for lots of all-fields contact. Moniak has terrific hand-eye coordination, moves the bat around the hitting zone and his bat-to-ball output is going to be aided by his speed. A plus runner, Moniak projects to stay in center field, where he has the requisite range and instincts to be a plus defender at peak.

There are questions about the kind of power Moniak, who is slight of build, is going to have at peak. He has thin forearms, a flat, narrow lower half and, while I do think there’s some room for more strength simply through physical maturation, he’s unlikely to ever hit 18-plus home runs. At the very least, Moniak will need to become strong enough that he’s somewhat of a singular threat to opposing upper-level pitchers so they don’t attack him with impunity, force him to put an inordinate amount of balls in play and limit his ability to reach base. I think it’s likely he gets to that point.

A good defensive center fielder with Moniak’s aptitude for contact is a very valuable and, considering how consistently Moniak hit against elite competition in high school and the stability of his defensive profile, he’s a relatively low risk prospect for a high schooler entering his first full pro season.

MLB - 19
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55

Hailing from the southern California high school ranks, Moniak springboarded from a strong summer showcase to a spring that saw him continue to excel, moving up boards and landing as the No. 1 overall pick. The Phillies signed him for $6.1 million, well under pick value, and Moniak had a solid pro debut in the Gulf Coast League, though fatigue and a minor hip flexor slowed him temporarily.

Moniak has considerable tools that should excite Phillies fans. He can flat-out rake, making consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate. He started showing more power during his senior year and he could approach Major League average pop as a pro. Perhaps more impressive than his innate ability to barrel up the ball is his IQ at the plate, with an approach far advanced for his age and a willingness to use all fields. Moniak runs very well, allowing him to be a threat on the bases and to cover a lot of ground in center field, where he has the chance to be an elite defender.

Moniak was already gaining good weight and adding strength last fall, something that will serve him well in his first full season of pro ball. His instincts, work ethic and natural tools all point to him living up to the expectations usually heaped on a No. 1 pick's shoulders.

KLaw - 30
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE

The first pick in the 2016 draft, Moniak is a high-floor, teenage-position-player prospect, meaning he’s more likely to play in the big leagues than 90 percent of high school prospects taken high in the draft. In Moniak’s case, it’s a combination of his defensive value, his makeup and scouts’ faith in his bat that gives him that designation, although I think it shortchanges his potential upside during the long haul into his late 20s.

For now, Moniak is a true center fielder who is a plus runner and should end up a plus defender at that spot because he’s rangy and gets good reads. At the plate, despite his height, Moniak has a short swing that produces a lot of line drives, and he uses the whole field well but doesn’t pull the ball much for power or drop the bat head to get some more loft into his finish. He’s a four-tool guy, lacking the power, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could find power with some small changes to his swing, especially where and how he starts his hands.

 If the Phillies simply don’t want to mess with a good thing, however, Moniak might end up an All-Star anyway because you could say it’s a future 70 bat on a true center fielder who will add value with his glove. That’s the kind of high-floor prospect I like.