Alex Bregman - SS
DOB: 03/30/1994
Height/Weight: 6’0” 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
BP (39) - Future Tools: 60 hit, 55 arm, 50+ speed Role: 60—First-division shortstop
Sometimes people talk about the safety of a prospect like it’s a backhanded sort of compliment. It shouldn’t be this way, and Bregman’s “safe” profile is why he’s one of the best middle-infield prospects in baseball. His smooth, line-drive swing comes with above-average bat speed, and his ability to recognize pitches while staying back and keeping his hands in makes the hit tool plus. Carlos Correa he is not, but there is some power here, thanks to his ability to lift the ball and clear his hips. He makes the most of his tick-above-average speed, by getting good jumps and as a result holds 15-20 stolen base upside.
His ultimate position has been debated for some time (one area scout told me Bregman’s best fit would be at catcher in high school), but shortstop is looking more and more likely, or—given his organization—at least within his capabilities. He makes up for a lack of elite range with keen instincts, and he’s rarely out of position, with an above-average throwing arm that can turn hits into outs.
There are some guys who just “get it” on the field, and Bregman is one of those guys. There’s no below-average tool in his shed, and even if he isn’t a star he should be an above-average regular for a long time.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The value with Bregman in dynasty leagues is in his floor, as he’s not very likely to be an elite performer at whatever position he does end up at. However, he’s as good a bet as almost any infielder in the minors to be a useful mixed league starter. The end result could be a near .300 hitter with 15 homers, 15 steals and attractive counting stats—which looks a lot like star-level Dustin Pedroia (but not the superstar-level version).
MLB.com (22) - Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60
On the same day that the Astros promoted former No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa to the big leagues, they spent the No. 2 choice in the 2015 Draft on another impact shortstop. Bregman quickly established himself as one of the best hitters in college baseball during three years at Louisiana State, and he lived up to that billing in his pro debut, reaching high Class A after signing for $5.9 million.
Though Bregman's right-handed swing is unorthodox, he has outstanding bat speed and control of the strike zone, allowing him to barrel balls consistently. He has some pull power and could hit 20 homers on an annual basis if he adds some loft to his fairly flat stroke. Though Bregman is just an average runner, he plays quicker than that on the basepaths and at shortstop because of his superb instincts.
Bregman has drawn comparisons to Dustin Pedroia for years because he has similar size, tools and makeup. Unlike Pedroia, Bregman has a chance to play shortstop in the big leagues after showing improvement at the position in 2015. His defensive ability doesn't stand out as much as his offensive gifts, but he has a solid arm and a knack for making plays.
KLaw (19) -
Bregman was the best pure college bat in the draft class in 2015, overcoming his lack of speed and questions about his long-term position to end up the second player selected with the first of Houston's two picks in the top five. Bregman posted a composite line of .337/.409/.514 in three years at LSU, playing full-time as a true freshman in 2013, walking more than he struck out and making his fair share of highlight plays at short for the Tigers. I still think he ends up at second base, but I also think he'll hit and will be banging on the Astros' clubhouse door at some point this year.
Bregman has always had two standout attributes: a very compact, direct swing and great hand-eye coordination. He hit everything hard in high school on the showcase circuit, but was going to be a tough sign even before a broken finger wiped out most of his senior year at the Albuquerque (New Mexico) Academy, although the Red Sox made an effort to sign him after picking him in the 29th round in 2012.
Bregman's swing and size lead to projections of very high contact rates and .300-plus averages but only 8-10 homers a year, meaning his offense will be more wrapped up in high OBPs than power. That's fine even if he does slide over to second base, as his arm is fringe-average -- not enough to be an every-day shortstop in the majors -- and his range to his left isn't what teams want at the position. But he has good hands and outstanding instincts, so wherever he moves -- some teams wanted him to catch in high school, although it's too late for that now -- he'll adapt quickly.
The Astros could and probably should start him in Double-A Corpus Christi and let his bat and the major league team's needs determine his timetable.
FG - Hit: 55/60/65 Power: 35/40/45 Run: 50/55/55 Field: 50/55/55+ Throw:55/55/60
Bregman stands out for his elite contact skills, and he has enough bat speed to do something with the ball when he connects. Scouts questioned his capabilities at shortstop, but range is the only part of his defense that will end up around average; he has soft hands and a good arm. In truth, Carlos Correa is the only reason he won’t play short for the Astros anytime soon.
Some evaluators believe Bregman will develop average power, but I just don’t see that in the cards. He has the strength, but his approach is geared toward contact and his flat-to-downward swing plane limits his fly-ball power to balls up in the zone, where the bat path levels out more. I’m giving him a 45 ceiling grade on it, but that would require conscious swing changes that won’t be necessary for him to be an excellent asset on offense. He’s going to be a line-drive machine with a severe allergy to strikeouts. On top of that, he doesn’t abuse his contact skills by swinging early and often, and will take his walks when pitchers don’t give in to him.
Throw on top his above-average running game, and Bregman starts to look very good as a future plus regular with All-Star upside. He will move quickly through the system if the Astros allow it, and will be ready to be an asset on both sides of the ball, even if he moves to second, third or the outfield.
KLaw (19) -
Bregman was the best pure college bat in the draft class in 2015, overcoming his lack of speed and questions about his long-term position to end up the second player selected with the first of Houston's two picks in the top five. Bregman posted a composite line of .337/.409/.514 in three years at LSU, playing full-time as a true freshman in 2013, walking more than he struck out and making his fair share of highlight plays at short for the Tigers. I still think he ends up at second base, but I also think he'll hit and will be banging on the Astros' clubhouse door at some point this year.
Bregman has always had two standout attributes: a very compact, direct swing and great hand-eye coordination. He hit everything hard in high school on the showcase circuit, but was going to be a tough sign even before a broken finger wiped out most of his senior year at the Albuquerque (New Mexico) Academy, although the Red Sox made an effort to sign him after picking him in the 29th round in 2012.
Bregman's swing and size lead to projections of very high contact rates and .300-plus averages but only 8-10 homers a year, meaning his offense will be more wrapped up in high OBPs than power. That's fine even if he does slide over to second base, as his arm is fringe-average -- not enough to be an every-day shortstop in the majors -- and his range to his left isn't what teams want at the position. But he has good hands and outstanding instincts, so wherever he moves -- some teams wanted him to catch in high school, although it's too late for that now -- he'll adapt quickly.
The Astros could and probably should start him in Double-A Corpus Christi and let his bat and the major league team's needs determine his timetable.
FG - Hit: 55/60/65 Power: 35/40/45 Run: 50/55/55 Field: 50/55/55+ Throw:55/55/60
Bregman stands out for his elite contact skills, and he has enough bat speed to do something with the ball when he connects. Scouts questioned his capabilities at shortstop, but range is the only part of his defense that will end up around average; he has soft hands and a good arm. In truth, Carlos Correa is the only reason he won’t play short for the Astros anytime soon.
Some evaluators believe Bregman will develop average power, but I just don’t see that in the cards. He has the strength, but his approach is geared toward contact and his flat-to-downward swing plane limits his fly-ball power to balls up in the zone, where the bat path levels out more. I’m giving him a 45 ceiling grade on it, but that would require conscious swing changes that won’t be necessary for him to be an excellent asset on offense. He’s going to be a line-drive machine with a severe allergy to strikeouts. On top of that, he doesn’t abuse his contact skills by swinging early and often, and will take his walks when pitchers don’t give in to him.
Throw on top his above-average running game, and Bregman starts to look very good as a future plus regular with All-Star upside. He will move quickly through the system if the Astros allow it, and will be ready to be an asset on both sides of the ball, even if he moves to second, third or the outfield.
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