DOB: 08/17/1993
Height/Weight: 6’3” 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
BP (50) - Future Tools: 65 hit, 50+ power Role: 55—Above-average corner outfielder
Winker’s 2015 numbers are solid, but they’re even more impressive when you consider that he was hitting .229 and slugging .314 before June. He pairs a good approach with top-notch barrel control, giving him a chance for a plus-plus hit tool despite less-than-elite bat speed.
While he hadn’t shown any difficulties handling southpaws in years past, a .654 OPS against them in 2015 highlights an area that will require constant attention as he continues on up the chain. There’s solid-average power in his bat, and while he’ll never be a 30-plus homer guy, 20-homer seasons aren’t out of the question because he has a strong lower half and just enough loft in his swing.
Defensively, Winker has worked hard to get to the fringe-average point, but fringe-average is all he’s going to be. He’s an average runner who doesn’t get great jumps, and his fringe-average arm limits him to left field. He’d obviously be a whole lot more valuable at essentially every other position than first base, but when you have these kinds of on-base skills, you live with the defensive shortcomings.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Winker remains the top fantasy prospect in this system, as it’s really tough to take a pitching prospect over an outfielder who could hit .300 with 20-plus homers (it is Cincinnati after all). This off-season probably represents your last realistic buying opportunity on the 22-year-old, given that his stats were depressed by injury last year.
MLB.com (34) - Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 40 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55
It's often said that adversity can be the best teacher. Winker enrolled in a master class during the first half of 2015 in Double-A. How he finished the year shows just how well the outfielder can make adjustments.
The 2012 supplemental first-round pick had just a .700 OPS in the first half of the 2015 season, but Winker had a .941 OPS in the second half of the Southern League season. The key for the left-handed-hitting outfielder was he didn't chase results and get out of his game plan. An extremely advanced hitter, Winker continued to work counts and draw walks even when he was scuffling. He's going to hit for a high average because of that approach. Just how much power Winker develops has been open to debate, but there's definitely more to come, with a ceiling of 25-homer seasons a distinct possibility. While he struggled offensively, he improved his defense, his throwing and his baserunning.
The blip on the radar behind him, Winker is ready to start knocking on the door in Cincinnati. That left-handed swing in Great American Ball Park should be fun to watch in the near future.
KLaw (41) -
Winker is a pure bat, one of the most disciplined hitters in the minors, but 2015 saw him start to develop the power he's going to need if he's going to be an above-average regular in left field.
Winker's at-bats have been tremendous since the day he got into pro ball; not only does he walk a lot, but he works the count like a major league veteran and tries to get himself into hitter's counts so he can find a pitch to drive. He started slow in his first full season in Double-A last year, but homered in his first game of the second half and hit .316/.426/.516 through the end of the season with 10 homers, 41 walks and 43 strikeouts -- in the context of park and league, that's his best power output of any stage of his career to date. His swing is very simple and clean, with a direct path to the ball and enough hip rotation for him to be an 18-20 homer guy at his peak. He has played left and right field, and probably would work his way up to average in right, but he's already average in left and there's an opening in Cincinnati at that position right now.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS project Winker to post a .333 OBP in the majors in 2016, higher than any current Reds hitter other than Joey Votto, and I can't disagree with that assessment. Winker would make their offense better right away, even as he continues to grow into his power and work on his defense.
Fangraphs - Hit: 60/70/75 Power: 45/55/60 Run: 40/40/45 Field: 40/45/45 Throw: 45/45/50 Overall: 50/60/70
Bestowed with a great swing and one of the most advanced approaches in the minor leagues, Winker is ready to bring his impact offense to the Reds as soon as opening day. He likely starts the 2016 season in Triple-A, though a strong showing could propel him into the Reds outfield by July. He won’t offer much on the base-running or defensive sides, but his bat will make him an immensely valuable asset regardless.
Winker’s power numbers have lagged a bit as he has climbed the system ladder, but he is exactly the type of hitter you can expect to grow into greater power than he’s shown in the minors. He has a great swing path capable of lifting pitches to all fields, though it can get a bit level at times. His lower half and hands are very well sequenced, ensuring he’s able to hit balls hard without using a lot of effort in any one part of his swing.
It’s a matter of gaining functional strength to turn his doubles and deep fly balls into homers, as he has all the other ingredients to be that kind of hitter. Winker also doesn’t get cheated, forcing pitchers to come to him or he gladly takes his walks. He adjusts well to changes in speed and movement with good balance and swing efficiency.
He spent most of his time in left field last season, and that looks to be his home for the near future, with an eventual move to first base a possibility. He has some speed, enough to keep him from clogging up the base paths and steal a few bases here and there. His fielding grades out a bit below average with a passable arm, making left field a position he could fit in without adding or losing a lot of value to his team.
Winker has already proven he can hit, and his ability to get on base bumps his grades up to account for his approach continuing to be successful in the big leagues. I see power development in his future, but even if he doesn’t reach his ceiling as a slugger, his hit tool will easily justify giving him a spot in the top half of the lineup.
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BP - 2/17/16 -
The knocks on Winker center on his lack of standout power, that he’s limited to left field and that he won’t run much. That’s all well and good, but Winker can flat-out hit and I believe he’s an underrated dynasty league asset. Scouting the stat line isn’t a great idea, but Winker is a career .294/.399/.475 hitter in 1,712 minor-league PA. Those numbers are backed up by a 65-grade hit tool and 50-grade power tool, and that’s a combination I find mighty attractive. Winker should be in the majors at some point in 2016, and given that he’ll be playing frequently in the GAP he’ll be of immediate interest. He’s a probably OF2 in OBP leagues and OF3 in standard formats.
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