BP - 10
DOB: 09/06/1994
Height/Weight: 6’1” 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Good: Freakish bat speed. Easy plus power with potential for more. One of the few right-handed hitters whose swing gets described as pretty or beautiful. Excellent overall athlete, above-average runner, and aggressive, physical player. Looks and feels the part of a superstar. Frazier has as much overall offensive upside as any player still in the minors...
The Bad: ...but for a player that’s reached Triple-A without being rushed, he’s still fairly far from the upside, especially on the hit tool. There’s just too much swing-and-miss still present, and there’s no singular, easily fixable cause. He’s gotten better at picking up spin, but he’s still not great at picking up spin. His swing path is a little shorter to the ball with a quieter pre-swing hitch, but it’s still not short and there’s still a hitch. And he’s toned back the aggressiveness trying to jack everything a mile, but he’s still pretty aggressive. Defensively, it looks like he’s going to be in a corner full-time by the time he hits The Show.
The Irrelevant: The Yanks leaked a Mike Trout comp for Frazier after trading for him. That seems irrelevant for the purpose of this write-up.
The Role:
OFP 70—A perennial All-Star corner outfielder
Likely 55—Solid regular who always leaves you wondering why he isn’t more
The Risks: The hitting and approach is either going to click at some point, or it won’t and he’ll always be reaching for an upside that keeps slipping through his fingers. Frazier is talented enough that even if it doesn’t all click, we still project him as a likely regular, but low-average corner outfielders that hit for good-but-not-great power aren’t exactly special either. There’s some downside risk that MLB-quality spin just totally eats his lunch and he’s not even that.
Major League ETA: 2017 —Jarrett Seidler
Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Bret Sayre and I have been the highest on Frazier among all MiLB enthusiasts for quite some time now. A good performance in Double-A and a trade to an organization that provides favorable offensive contextual factors hasn’t changed that, oddly enough. I agree with the sentiment that Frazier is likely to frustrate at times, but if he can do so while hitting 20-plus homers, stealing 10-plus bases and both producing and scoring runs, we’ll get over it. Frazier is a legitimate candidate to be an OF2 in his best years, and he’s a borderline top-10 overall dynasty asset.
KLaw - 27
Age: 22 (9/6/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190
Frazier was the headliner in the package of prospects going to the Bronx for Andrew Miller, having reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old after a year and a half of raking his way up from A-ball. He has absolutely electric bat speed that produces above-average power, probably never in the 30-homer range but certainly 15-20 on a consistent basis with high batting averages and a lot of doubles.
Frazier has also boosted his contact rates since a rough go of things in his first full year in pro ball, although I think his swing is so fast and hard that he can be overconfident and chase offspeed stuff, when he needs to learn to lay off. Frazier has played all over the outfield in pro ball, but he’s going to be pushed to a corner, more likely left, by faster and rangier players in center. Given how he’s hit to date, with consistently high BABIPs because he makes hard contact, he’s one of the best bets in the minors to hit .300+, and with moderate power and 50-60 walks a year that would make him at least an above-average regular.
MLB - 24
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55
The first high school position player selected and the No. 5 overall choice in the 2013 Draft, Frazier received a franchise-record $3.5 million bonus from the Indians. Cleveland counted on him to be a big part of its future until last July, when it used him as the key prospect in a four-player package that yielded Andrew Miller from the Yankees. Frazier suffered from some self-imposed pressure immediately after the deal, though he did make his Triple-A debut and contributed to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre's International League title.
Few prospects can match Frazier's lightning bat speed and raw power. He has toned down his once ultra-aggressive approach and improved his pitch recognition, though he still strikes out a lot because his right-handed swing can get long and he has some difficulties with breaking pitches. Nevertheless, he's still just 22 and has time to make further adjustments that could help him hit for a solid average with 30 homers per season.
After playing center field for most of his first three pro seasons, Frazier spent the majority of 2016 on the outfield corners. His above-average speed and arm strength make him an asset in left or right. He's also helpful on the bases, where he shows good instincts.
No comments:
Post a Comment