Nick Senzel - 17

BP - 16

DOB: 6/29/1995 Height/Weight: 6’1” 205 lbs. Bats/Throws: R/R

The Good: Senzel received the biggest bonus in the 2016 draft class, and he backed up the paycheck on the field. He’s a potential five-tool third baseman with plus hit and above-average power grades making him a potential middle-of-the-order bat at the hot corner. His defensive tools aren’t quite as exciting—not that you’d care at this point—but he’s a competent glove at third with a plus arm.



The Bad: It’s a balanced profile, which isn’t bad per se, but he lacks an impact carrying tool. Might be more of a good regular than a perennial all-star type. Power may play more as average long-term and he may fit best as a no. 6 hitter on a first division team.

The Irrelevant: Senzel isn’t the rangiest third baseman you’ll find, but he can make plays all over the diamond (and in the dugout).

The Role: OFP 60—First division third baseman Likely 55—Above-average third baseman

The Risks: Senzel is about as safe a bet as you can find in A-ball. While he lacks the ceiling of the elite class of prospects, he has an advanced hit tool and should be a solid contributor both at the plate and on the dirt. He could also move very quickly, and a major-league debut in 2017 is not impossible although the Reds have no incentive to push him through the minors.

Major league ETA: Early 2018

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Sounds good to me! Senzel serves as a badly needed injection of upside and probability for a collection of third base dynasty prospects that’s the weakest it’s been in years. He’s probably the best dynasty prospect from the last draft, and he’s a no-doubt top-50 name right now. Sure, you don’t have to squint to see the ceiling, but if Senzel emerges as, oh, I don’t know, 2016 Anthony Rendon (.270, 20 homers, 12 steals), no one will be complaining.


KLaw - 15

Age: 22 (6/29/95) | B/T: R/R Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205

Senzel was a huge question mark entering his junior year at Tennessee; most scouts agreed he could hit, but he was a poor defender at third with an unclear future in the field and hadn’t shown the power needed to profile at a corner. To his great credit, Senzel worked to make himself an asset on defense at third, no worse than average in the big leagues, and doubled his home run total from his sophomore year, which led the Reds to take him with the second overall pick in the 2016 draft.

Cincinnati was aggressive with his assignment after he signed, sending him to Low-A Dayton, and all he did was hit .329/.420/.567 in 210 plate appearances, which would have led the league in OBP and slugging if he’d played enough. Senzel is a 60 runner who might end up swinging a 70 bat, and in a neutral park should be good for 15-20 homers a year, maybe 20-25 if his home park in the majors is Cincinnati’s. Even average defense at third would make him a potential All-Star, and if he’s got the hit tool, he should be on track to reach the majors by September.


Fangraphs - 11

Age: 22 Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Bat/Throw: R/R
Hit - 50/60 Raw Power - 55/60 Game Power - 40/55 Run - 55/50 Fielding - 40/50 Throw - 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics Dramatically increased ISO (.170 as a sophomore, .243 as junior) at University of Tennessee in 2016 and stole 25 bases at an 86% clip.

Scouting Report A young-for-the-class SEC hitter with a long track record of success, Senzel was the most polished bat available in the 2016 draft. I saw him early in the year during a four-team round robin in Arizona and thought he’d go somewhere in the top 10-15 picks. While facing pitching far beneath the quality of arms he’d see later in the year during SEC play, Senzel finished the weekend 8-for-13 with four doubles, six walks, five of those on the final day of play. Despite my own enthusiasm, when a scout told me they thought he had an outside shot at going 1-1, I scoffed. Senzel was drafted No. 2 overall by Cincy in June. There are probably a few reasons for this, beyond a potential misevaluation of Senzel’s talent. Prospects ahead of Senzel on my board at that time (such as Jason Groome, Delvin Perez, Alec Hansen) all saw their stocks dip for one reason or another during the spring, while Senzel continued to rake. Moreover, he was one of the safest prospects in a draft class without huge, risk-worthy talent up top.

Senzel has above-average bat speed and bat control. His swing can get long at times and, despite simple hitting feet, his front foot sometimes gets down late which causes the rest of his swing to be tardy, as well. He was getting that foot down earlier during instructional league. He has above-average raw power, which should grow to plus as Senzel reaches physical maturity (he was only 20 on draft day and is well built), though it doesn’t play to that level in games because Senzel doesn’t incorporate his lower half into his swing especially well. If Senzel reaches a point when it would be useful to alter some aspects of his swing to generate more game power I think he’s athletic enough to make the adjustments.

Reports on Senzel’s defense as a sophomore were mixed. Scouts liked his athleticism and straight-line speed (he’s a 55 runner right now and swiped 25 bags at Tennessee this year), but his feel for third and his first step weren’t great and his arm was just passable. He was solid, if unspectacular, when I saw him this year. He charges balls in on the grass with comfort and authority, makes accurate throws to first from awkward platforms and his hands are adequate, though not exceptionally soft. I could see his range becoming an issue as the weight of age diminishes what is already a mediocre first step. I think he’s a future average defender at third, but development at that position can be volatile, and I think there’s a chance he’s better than that.

I have Senzel projected as an above-average everyday player. If the defense or power progress beyond my projections (I think there’s a chance for both), then he has a chance for stardom. Recent top college draftees have sprinted to the majors and, without many talented obstacles in the big leagues or high minors impeding his progression, there’s a chance Senzel reaches the big leagues next year. I think he exceeds rookie eligibility in 2018.


MLB - 26
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

Senzel first started to raise his profile in the Cape Cod League in 2015, then with a strong junior season at Tennessee in 2016. The top pure college hitter in that Draft class, he went No. 2 overall to the Reds, signing for $6.2 million, the top bonus in the Draft, albeit below pick value. Senzel kept on hitting during his pro debut, spending most of it hitting over .300 in the full-season Midwest League.

The right-handed hitter has both strength and bat speed to go along with an advanced approach at the plate. He uses all fields and draws walks, which should help him continue to hit for both average and power. His speed plays up thanks to outstanding instincts which allow him to be a base stealing threat. Senzel has worked hard on his defensive craft and there are no longer questions about his ability to stay at the hot corner long-term, with a strong arm, good hands and quick feet.

His early success in the Midwest League could allow Senzel to jump on a fast track. Seeing him be the first bat from his Draft class to reach the big leagues certainly seems reasonable.