Cody Bellinger - 13

BP - 20
DOB: 07/13/1995 Height/Weight: 6’4” 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L The

Good: Big kid, big raw, big leverage, big bat speed, big noise. 2016 proved he wasn’t just a Cal League mirage. Bellinger’s not a traditional corner masher either. He’s lean and athletic and has even been spotting Tulsa and OKC in center field from time to time. The power potential is plus-plus, He could win some gold gloves at first base if that’s his ultimate home.



The Bad: Bellinger can sell out to get to that big raw power, and there are potentially big strikeout numbers to go with the big dongs. Minor league arms will pitch around his big bat, but his actual approach lags behind the raw walk totals. He will expand the zone with two strikes. He’s not a center fielder, although he should be able to play some corner outfield as well.

The Irrelevant: Five players have played at least 20 games at both first base and center field in the same season this decade: Austin Romine, Wil Myers, Scott Van Slyke, and John Mayberry.

The Role: OFP 60—First-division first baseman Likely 55—Above-average first baseman

The Risks: Normally this is the spot where I gravely intone about the profile issues with a first base prospect. How the power really has to play in order to achieve that OFP. And all that applies here as well. But man, it sure looks right.

Major League ETA: Late 2017

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I personally prefer Josh Bell because of his floor, but if you want to argue that Bellinger is the best first base prospect, I’ll listen. Bellinger has big-time power and big-time production, and while the strikeout issues are real so is the upside. He might only hit .240 or .250, but Bellinger could smash 30 bombs a year. That might come in the OF instead of at 1B, but if that’s the case you won’t be complaining.

Fangraphs - 9
Age 21 Height 6’4 Weight 213 Bat/Throw L/L
Hit 30/45 Raw Power 60/70 Game Power 40/60 Run 45/40 Fielding 60/70 Throw 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics Cut strikeout rate from 27.6% in 2015 (High-A) to 20.2% (Double-A).

Scouting Report Bellinger hit four homers in 2013 and 2014 combined before skipping Low-A in 2015 and heading straight to the Cal League, where he promptly broke out and hit 30 homers. That power comes from the monster hacks that Bellinger takes in all counts. He doesn’t protect or shorten up with two strikes and instead he’s constantly threatening low-flying aircraft with his incredible torque, hand speed and uppercut swing. This results in lots of airborne contact (majestic blasts as well as weak pop ups) and plenty of strikeouts, but there’s 25-plus-homer potential here already and the body still has some room to add mass. Bellinger has shown the ability to stay back on breaking balls, as well the ability to turn on plus velocity in on the hands and, while he does try to pull everything, he has solid plate coverage.

The offensive bar at first base is high but Bellinger’s power and approach profile there, and he’s an excellent defensive first baseman, garnering several 70 grades from scouts. He’s also seen time in the outfield, including center, and there are scouts who think he could play all three outfield spots in a pinch — though the glove is so good at first base that nobody will actively endorse it. The thought of a bat like this playing center field, even if he’s a 40 there, is enticing, but Bellinger’s leatherwork at first is special and major-league clubs like sound defensive first basemen because they’re constantly handling the ball. I don’t see him moving to the outfield unless it’s necessary to get his bat in the lineup at the big-league level immediately.

There’s some risk here because of the swing and miss, and I expect major-league pitchers will feed Bellinger a steady diet of offspeed pitches, especially back-foot sliders, once they see the swings he takes. But reports on his makeup are good and he’s already shown the ability to make adjustments in his young career, both encouraging signs for future meta-game interactions at the plate. I think there’s star-level potential here with a chance for 30-plus homers at maturity to go with sensational defense at first base and a side of defensive flexibility. I expect Bellinger to light the Pacific Coast League on fire in 2017 and push for a big-league job by mid-summer.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 10.2 WAR

KLaw - 9
Age: 21 (7/13/95) | B/T: L/L Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210

Bellinger was a fourth-round pick out of football powerhouse Hamilton High School in Chandler, Arizona, back in 2013, and even though it looks crazy now that a prospect this good fell to the fourth round, consider what he was then. The track record of high school first basemen taken high in the draft is poor, and teams shy away from that profile because there’s really no way out if something goes wrong -- a first baseman has to hit to justify his existence, and if his defense is a problem, there’s nowhere to hide him. Bellinger also had a big, long swing that looked certain to result in a ton of strikeouts, and his father, former Yankee Clay, was a 25th man/utility guy, not a superstar like his son now appears to be.

Cody is not his father in any respect. Scouts universally praise his ability to make substantial adjustments at the plate, even when moving up a level. He left the High-A California League, a hitter-friendly circuit, and cut his strikeout rate by a third despite moving up to Double-A, losing no power and even raising his OBP in the process. He generates a ton of torque through his hips, producing all that power, so he has been productive even as he’s figuring out who he is as a hitter -- and who he is keeps getting better each season.

Bellinger is also an elite defensive first baseman, providing a big target for fielding throws, moving exceptionally well around the bag, grading out as a 70 defender who might be even better, and he gives his team the flexibility to put him in any outfield spot, including center, if the need arises. Adrian Gonzalez with better defense? Eric Hosmer with power? Any reasonable comparison needs a modifier because Bellinger, still just 21 years old, has so much untapped upside yet to be discovered.

MLB - 12
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 70 | Overall: 60

Bellinger's father Clay parlayed his skills as a glove-first shortstop into two World Series rings with the Yankees and a spot on the 2004 Greek Olympic team. Though Cody can flash some leather as well, it's his bat that has scouts excited. After totaling four homers in his first two pro seasons, he has smashed 56 in the last two while reaching Triple-A at the age of 21.

Bellinger focused on hitting for average when he broke into pro ball, displaying a smooth left-handed stroke and patient approach. He since has added loft to his swing and gotten more aggressive about pulling pitches, becoming one of the best power prospects in the Minors. He did reduce his strikeout rate from 28 percent in 2015 (when he broke out with 30 homers) to 20 percent last year while also setting a career high with 60 walks, so there's hope that he could hit for high average to go with his pop.

Scouts rarely rave about a first-base prospect's defensive skills, but Bellinger is an exception who's smooth around the bag and excels at digging throws out of the dirt. Considered a future Gold Glover at first base, he moves and throws well enough that he also has seen time at all three outfield positions and hasn't looked overmatched in center field. His versatility will help him crack the lineup in Los Angeles, where All-Star Adrian Gonzalez is still under contract for two more seasons.